|

Fed Minutes: Officials determined that they needed to adopt and maintain a more restrictive policy stance

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of September's meeting have been released:

Fed officials determined that they needed to adopt and maintain a more restrictive policy stance in order to achieve their goal of lowering elevated inflation.

Many participants raised their assessment of the federal funding path required to meet committee objectives.
Many participants indicated that once the policy had reached a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to keep it there for a period of time.
Several participants predicted that as policy became more restrictive, risks would become more two-sided.
Several participants emphasized the importance of maintaining a restrictive stance for as long as necessary.
Despite a slowing labour market, officials are committed to raising interest rates.

On the margin, these minutes could be taken as somewhat less hawkish than the rhetoric that we have heard from Fed speakers and lean towards a pivot:

"Several participants noted that... it would be important to calibrate the pace of further policy tightening with the aim of mitigating the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook."

Market Update

US bond yields are softer with the 10-year in decline:

Meanwhile, the attention will now turn to the US inflation data on Thursday. On Wednesday morning,  US producer prices increased more than expected in September, further boosting the dollar, especially against the yen where the market's attention is focused the most. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.4%, above the forecast for a 0.2% rise. In the 12 months through September, the PPI increased 8.5% after advancing 8.7% in August.

Following the US PPI data, the greenback rose as high as 146.88 yen. The DXy index has reached a peak of 113.59 ahead of the FOMC minutes. USD/JPY remains near its strongest level since August 1998. It was last up 0.7% at 146.84, marking a fifth straight session of gains to a high of 146.09 so far. However, there is a hint of downside pressure coming through now that the markets are digesting the minutes as follows: 

About the FOMC Minutes

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.
Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.