Fed: Dovish tone to weigh on the dollar – TDS

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Economists at TD Securities analyze three possible scenarios for the Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement due out on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A dovish tone is set to reinforce the cyclical headwinds facing the USD and soggy trading tone, but likely supportive of risk appetite. 105.20 and 1.1917 in USD/JPY and EUR/USD will be key pivots.

Key quotes

“Hawkish (13%): Minimal changes to forward guidance and characterization of QE in the statement; more upbeat tone on the outlook following stronger-than-expected data recently; 2023 economic projections consistent with tightening soon after end of 2023. Suggestion that Fed may have eased enough given better-than-expected data recently. USD/JPY 106.20 EUR/USD 1.1760.”

“Base Case (65%): No inflation-outcome-based specificity in forward guidance yet, but AIT reflected in the statement and QE wording changed to make financial conditions broadly the main focus. Little change in tone on the economy. Economic projections for 2023 suggesting no tightening until well after the end of 2023. Emphasis on downside risks. Suggestion that dovish forward guidance could be made more dovish when communications part of review concludes, and that QE could be made more accommodative via the composition of purchases. USD/JPY 105.20 EUR/USD 1.1975.”

“Dovish (22%): Introduction of specific inflation-outcome-based forward guidance, such as a minimum 2.5% pace before tightening; QE made more long-end focused, boosting stimulus in effort to raise inflation and lower unemployment. Sub-2% median inflation projection for 2023. Unambiguous signal that officials will back up their words on AIT with action. USD/JPY 104.80 EUR/USD 1.2010.”

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1800, looks at US data

EUR/USD is still trading on the defensive in the latter part of Thursday’s session, while the US Dollar maintains its bid bias as investors now gear up for Friday’s key release of the PCE data, advanced Q4 GDP prints and flash PMIs.

GBP/USD bounces off monthly lows near 1.3430

GBP/USD is sliding in tandem with its risk-sensitive peers, drifting back towards the 1.3430 area, its lowest levels in the month. The move reflects a firmer Greenback, supported by another round of solid US data and a somewhat divided FOMC Minutes.

Gold drifts higher to near $5,000 on heightened US-Iran tensions

Gold price holds positive ground near $5,000 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran boost safe-haven demand. Traders brace for the preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter, the Personal Consumption Expenditures and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index data, which are due later on Friday.

Ethereum: Active addresses halt growth as US selling pressure eases

Ethereum network growth has declined after two months of explosive increase. US selling pressure has eased following an improvement in the Coinbase Premium Index. ETH extends its range-bound move below the $2,107 resistance and above $1,740 .

Hawkish Fed minutes and a market finding its footing

It was green across the board for US Stock market indexes at the close on Wednesday, with most S&P 500 names ending higher, adding 38 points (0.6%) to 6,881 overall. At the GICS sector level, energy led gains, followed by technology and consumer discretionary, while utilities and real estate posted the largest losses.

Injective token surges over 13% following the approval of the mainnet upgrade proposal

Injective price rallies over 13% on Thursday after the network confirmed the approval of its IIP-619 proposal. The green light for the mainnet upgrade has boosted traders’ sentiment, as the upgrade aims to scale Injective’s real-time Ethereum Virtual Machine architecture and enhance its capabilities to support next-generation payments.