Fading fears of recession buoy Copper – Commerzbank

Copper continued to gain last week, although it gave back some ground this morning. The brightening global economic picture prevailed last week. Markets have moved on from the turbulence caused by the weak US employment report earlier in the month and are now pricing in an environment of weaker growth, but not recession. This helps the cyclically sensitive Copper. Earlier this week, further details on Chinese foreign trade also helped, Commerzbank’s FX Analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Copper continues to gain

“During the rise, Copper was able to shrug off the news that a strike at the world's largest Copper mine, Escondida in Chile, had been settled after just a few days. The mine alone accounts for around 5% of the world's Copper ore supply and has often been the scene of lengthy strikes in the past.”

“In July, exports of unwrought Copper and Copper products were again significantly lower than in the previous month. At around 141,000 tons, they are still at a very high level, but also well below the record level of 233,000 tons in the previous month. After two months of rapid increases, the decline eases concerns that China is dumping more and more Copper onto the world market due to weak domestic demand.”

“This week's flash estimates for the manufacturing PMIs in the advanced economies will be key, as they have been trending lower in recent months. In addition, the monthly report from the International Copper Study Group should provide some insight into the extent to which the Copper market remains oversupplied.”