EUR/USD weaker, challenges session lows near 1.1270


  • EUR/USD sheds further ground and tests 1.1270.
  • The greenback stays bid and approaches 97.00
  • US docket once again came in below expectations.

The selling pressure around the European currency is now gathering extra steam, dragging EUR/USD to test fresh daily lows in the proximity of the 1.1270 level, coincident with the 100-day/10-day SMAs.

EUR/USD weaker on USD demand, IMF

The shared currency is now depreciating further after the IMF deemed as precarious the euro area’s central forecasts.

Spot drops further despite today’s US docket came in on the soft side. In fact, Initial Claims rose at a weekly 222K, Import Prices contracted 0.3% MoM in May and Export Prices dropped 0.2% MoM.

In the meantime, US-China trade dispute remains as the exclusive driver for the pair’s price action along with potential Fed easing in the next months.

Somewhat supporting today’s performance, US-GE yields spread differentials keep the sideline move around 235 pts.

What to look for around EUR

The broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the trade front including the US, China, the EU and Mexico. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility, with the centre of the debate on the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules. EUR, however, is expected to remain under scrutiny amidst the renewed dovish stance from the ECB and the ongoing slowdown in the region.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.06% at 1.1280 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1271 (100-day SMA) followed by 1.1218 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1200 (low Jun.6). On the other hand, a break above 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1362 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

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