EUR/USD: technicals are indecisive, bulls need a close above 50-D SMA to target 1.1853/55

EUR/USD has been up to 1.1769 in NY trade, extending the rise from 1.1508 and through the descending 50-D SMA at 1.1736, albeit lacking conviction as the correction runs out of steam and as the mighty greenback continues to reign, albeit off its highs in the DXY's range today, (94.0180-94.4750 at 94.21 currently).

EUR/USD has been indecisive this week, unable to take much new out of ECB's President Draghi speaking in parliament and sounding somewhat more upbeat where he was expressing confidence that monetary policy was working. Most key is that he seemed convinced that inflation would converge with the central bank’s 2% target. 

EZ data mixed

For data, Germany’s ZEW investor sentiment index softened this month on trade tensions (72.4 from 80.6) but the index remains generally elevated. However, EZ ZEW dumped, -24.7 in July from -16.1. This was the weakest since -25.5 in Aug 2012. French industrial production fell a weaker than expected 0.2% in May (+0.7% M/M expected).

EUR/USD levels

EUR/USD is indecisive following yesterday's doji formation and flat performance on the daily sticks.  There seems to be a bearish bias die tot he longer upper wick on the same daily stick, making for a bearish reversal doji although today's price action os making for a bullish reversal doji so far - so we are none the wiser.  Meanwhile, the pair is testing the 50-D SMA and we need to see a close above there. However, analysts at Commerzbank explained that the intraday Elliott wave counts are more positive and intraday dips are expected to hold over 1.1710/1.1675 ahead of another leg up. "This suggests another attempt at the June high at 1.1853/55 is likely. Above 1.1855 we look for a deeper retracement to the 1.1927 55 week ma, with scope for the 1.1986 200 day ma," the analysts argued.