EUR/USD subdued as strong ISM and ADP data reinforce Fed’s cautious stance

The Euro remains subdued near three-month lows as upbeat US data lifts the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index climbs to 100.30, its strongest level in over five months.
Expectations for a December Fed cut have eased, with futures now implying a 62% likelihood amid firmer US data.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) trades slightly weaker against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, hovering near three-month lows as the Greenback remains broadly supported by upbeat US economic data.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is little changed around 1.1477, showing limited reaction despite a busy US economic calendar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major peers, is trading around 100.30, its highest level since May 29.

The latest ADP Employment Change report showed that US private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, exceeding market expectations of a modest 25,000 gain and reversing the 29,000 decline reported in September.

Separately, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded sharply to 52.4 in October from 50 in September, signaling a return to expansion in the services sector for the eighth time this year. The report highlighted stronger Business Activity (54.3) and New Orders (56.2), while Prices Paid surged to 70, its highest level in three years. However, the Employment Index remained in contraction at 48.2, indicating some softness in hiring.

Earlier in the day, the S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 54.8 in October from 54.2 in September, marking the thirty-third straight month of expansion in the sector. The report pointed to solid demand growth and steady job creation, although confidence slipped to a six-month low amid uncertainty around tariffs and government policy.

The data suggest that the US economy entered the fourth quarter with strong momentum, consistent with GDP rising at an annualized pace of about 2.5%, according to S&P Global Chief Economist Chris Williamson.

The combination of resilient services activity and steady job creation has strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a cautious stance following last week’s 25-basis-point (bps) reduction. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 62% probability of a rate cut in December, down from 71% earlier in the day and 94% a week ago.

(This story was corrected on November 5 at 17:28 GMT to say that the ADP Employment Change declined by 29,000 payrolls in September, not 32,000)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	-0.17%	0.42%	0.23%	-0.16%	-0.03%	0.02%
EUR	-0.03%		-0.22%	0.39%	0.20%	-0.19%	-0.04%	-0.01%
GBP	0.17%	0.22%		0.60%	0.41%	0.01%	0.15%	0.20%
JPY	-0.42%	-0.39%	-0.60%		-0.19%	-0.58%	-0.46%	-0.40%
CAD	-0.23%	-0.20%	-0.41%	0.19%		-0.39%	-0.27%	-0.21%
AUD	0.16%	0.19%	-0.01%	0.58%	0.39%		0.13%	0.18%
NZD	0.03%	0.04%	-0.15%	0.46%	0.27%	-0.13%		0.05%
CHF	-0.02%	0.01%	-0.20%	0.40%	0.21%	-0.18%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

FXStreet

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

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