• The euro is barely down in choppy trading as financial markets remain closed.
  • A dovish European Central Bank plummets the EUR/USD towards new YTD lows at 1.0757.
  • The US Dollar Index to finish the week with gains of 0.68%.
  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: A weekly close below 1.0806 might open the door toward 1.0636.

On Friday, the EUR/USD slides amidst a dull trading session due to Easter Friday. The common currency is trading at 1.0808, down some 0.18%, at the time of writing.

The euro fall continues after the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to deliver a hawkish tilt on Thursday’s monetary policy decision, which could have lifted the shared currency against its counterparts. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value vs. a basket of six currencies, is almost flat, though up 0.03%, at 100.507.

ECB kept rates unchanged and eyes to finish APP by Q3

On Thursday, the ECB unveiled its monetary policy decision, keeping rates intact, and announced the last three bond purchases of the Asset Purchasing Program (APP). The ECB said that the monthly net purchases under the APP would amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May, and €20 billion in June.

EUR/USD traders perceived the monetary policy statement as dovish amid the lack of commitment towards a future tightening. The pair dipped towards 1.0757, a new YTD low, last seen in April 2020.

Mrs. Lagarde’s press conference did not give any hints regarding raising rates, though she emphasized that finishing the bond-buying program is required before rate increases. Christine Lagarde stated that risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside in the near term and added that the APP is very “likely” to end in Q3. The ECB’s President stated that inflation is being driven by energy prices and has intensified across many sectors. She foresees that growth would have remained weak in Q1 2022.

In the meantime, an ECB survey reported that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the index for measuring inflation in the EU, is seen at 6% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. The same poll also reported expectations of growth. People surveyed forecast the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to end at 2.9% in 2022, 2.3% in 2023, and 1.8% by 2024.

Also read:

The Eurozone economic docket featured France and Italy’s inflationary figures for March. French inflation was aligned with the consensus, while Italy’s one showed that prices increased less than expected. Across the pond, US Industrial Production for March rose by 0.9%, higher than the 0.4%, while the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped sharply to 24.6, smashing the 0.5 estimations.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD weekly chart depicts that the downtrend might extend further,  though a close below 1.0806 might open the door towards March 2020 lows at 1.0636. That said, the EUR/USD first support would be 1.0757. A breach of the latter would expose April 2020 cycle low at 1.0727, followed by the 1.0636 aforementioned.

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0808
Today Daily Change -0.0018
Today Daily Change % -0.17
Today daily open 1.0828
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0969
Daily SMA50 1.1105
Daily SMA100 1.1209
Daily SMA200 1.1442
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0923
Previous Daily Low 1.0758
Previous Weekly High 1.1054
Previous Weekly Low 1.0836
Previous Monthly High 1.1233
Previous Monthly Low 1.0806
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0821
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.086
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0749
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0671
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0584
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0915
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1002
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1081

 

 

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