Analysts at MUFG Bank, are sticking with their neutral outlook for the euro in the month ahead but are widening the range to reflect building risks. They expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1400 and 1.2200.
Key Quotes:
“The euro has continued to lose upward momentum against the US dollar over the past month with the pair falling towards the bottom of our previous range between 1.1600 and 1.2100. It has resulted in leveraged funds cutting back long euro positions at the fastest pace in eight months. Bullish sentiment towards the euro has been dampened by the renewed spread of COVID-19 in Europe.”
“We expect the ECB to deliver more stimulus perhaps as soon as their next policy meeting on 29th October although more likely on 12th December. The ECB will at least be relieved though that the pace of euro appreciation has slowed recently.”
“We expect the US dollar to be undermined by the outcome from the US Presidential election. The worst near-term outcome for the US dollar would be Joe Biden becomes President and the Democrats also take control of the Senate.”
“We expect the improvement in risk sentiment to help weaken the US dollar even if higher long-term US yields provide some support for the US dollar. As the most liquid alternative to the US dollar, the euro would benefit by default.”
“We are also expecting the EU and UK to reach a Brexit trade deal in the month ahead (...) While a deal would mostly encourage a stronger pound, it could also have a more modest positive impact on the euro.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.