EUR/USD stays bid above 1.0900 and looks to geopolitics

The upbeat mood in the risk-associated space motivates EUR/USD to push further north of the 1.0900 barrier on Wednesday.

EUR/USD keeps the attention on the Russia-Ukraine dispute

EUR/USD adds to Tuesday’s gains and looks to consolidate the recent breakout of 1.0900 the figure amidst the continuation of the offered bias in the dollar and the somewhat diminishing demand for safe havens.

The upside in the pair also remains propped up by the moderate rebound in yields of the German 10y Bund to new monthly highs near the 0.15% area, all against the backdrop of the generalized bounce in yields in the global cash markets.

In the meantime, market participants continue to closely follow the geopolitical landscape and the upcoming meeting between Russian and Ukraine officials, expected anytime soon.

Absent data releases in the euro area and minor publications in the NA session should leave all the attention to the upcoming ECB event and US inflation figures, both due on Thursday.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD managed well to regain upside momentum and reclaim the area above the 1.0900 barrier. The European currency is expected to remain under heavy pressure for as long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict lasts along with the persistent risk aversion, altogether bolstering the “flight-to-safety” environment. In the longer run, occasional strength in the pair should remain underpinned by speculation of a potential interest rate hike by the ECB probably sooner than many anticipate, higher German yields, persevering elevated inflation, the decent pace of the economic recovery and auspicious results from key fundamentals in the region.

Key events in the euro area this week: ECB interest rate decision (Thursday) – Germany Final CPI.

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Presidential elections in France in April. Geopolitical concerns from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is gaining 0.27% at 1.0925 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1058 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1286 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1395 (weekly high Feb.16). On the other hand, a drop below 1.0805 (2022 low Mar.7) would target 1.0766 (monthly low May 7 2020) en route to 1.0727 (monthly low Apr. 24 2020).