EUR/USD wavers within previous ranges ahead of US claims, housing data

EUR/USD bounces up from 1.1833 lows but remains below the 1.1900 level.
Strong US Nonfarm Payrolls provided a moderate boost to the US Dollar.
US Jobless Claims and Home Sales figures might provide some guidance later on Thursday.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) shows marginal gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading at 1.1880 at the time of writing, up from Wednesday's lows at 1.1833. The pair has trimmed previous losses amid a moderate risk appetite as the positive impact of the strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on the USD faded.

January's delayed US NFP report showed a 130K increase in net employment, almost twice the 70K forecasted by market analysts, and the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in the previous month.

An excessive concentration of employment creation, with the healthcare sector accounting for nearly two-thirds of January's payrolls and a sharp downward revision to 2025 figures, somewhat tempered investors' optimism. Wednesday's data, however, has eased concerns about the health of the US labour market, triggered by the downbeat ADP Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings released last week.

The Fed is unlikely to cut rates before June

Futures markets have scaled back bets of Fed rate cuts in the coming months following the NFP report. The odds for monetary easing in March have dropped to 5% from 20% pre-NFP, and the chances of a rate cut in April have dropped to 20% from above 40%, according to the CME's Fed Watch Tool. Investors still see a 60% chance of an easing move in June, the first monetary policy meeting with Kevin Warsh in the central bank's chair.

In the US session, Initial Jobless Claims and Home Sales figures might provide some distraction, although traders might remain cautious ahead of Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI), for a more complete assessment of the Fed's monetary policy path.

Later on Thursday, European Central Bank Board member Philip Lane, and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will take the stage to reiterate the idea of a steady monetary policy for the ner future, which is likely to keep the Euro buoyed.

Economic Indicator

Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A larger-than-expected number indicates weakness in the US labor market, reflects negatively on the US economy, and is negative for the US Dollar (USD). On the other hand, a decreasing number should be taken as bullish for the USD.

Why it matters to traders?

Every Thursday, the US Department of Labor publishes the number of previous week’s initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Since this reading could be highly volatile, investors may pay closer attention to the four-week average. A downtrend is seen as a sign of an improving labour market and could have a positive impact on the USD’s performance against its rivals and vice versa.

Economic Indicator

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)

The Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors, provide an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive for the Dollar, while a low reading is negative.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.6950 amid risk aversion

AUD/USD consolidates in the Asian session on Thursday, trading just above 0.6950 as traders assess developments in the Middle East crisis. The Pentagon reportedly ordered readiness for potential strikes against Iran. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which, along with hawkish FOMC Minutes and elevated US bond yields, will likely keep the US Dollar underpinned at the expense of the pair.

USD/JPY slips below 158.00 as USD retreats

USD/JPY returns to the red below 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar eases from near an 18-month high on profit taking, ignoring Wednesday's hawkish FOMC Minutes and the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, adding to the pair's pullback.

Gold bulls remain on the sidelines as hawkish Fed and Middle East jitters underpin USD

Gold trims its intraday gains and trades near $4,125 during the early European session on Thursday, up around 0.35% for the day. A combination of factors helps the US Dollar retain a bullish undertone, which keeps a lid on the precious metal's bounce from a two-month low, touched the previous day.

Ripple and Stellar test key support amid rising downside risks

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) remain under pressure and extend their corrections on Thursday as weakening derivatives metrics and broader macroeconomic headwinds weigh on sentiment. XRP and XLM approach a key support zone after three consecutive days of losses so far this week.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.