|

EUR/USD: Soft US CPI data needed to justify a move through 1.10 – SocGen

EUR/USD is dragged up by buoyant market sentiment. But the pair needs a soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to break past the 1.10 level, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports.

EUR/USD needs more help from relative rates

“The MOVE index of bond volatility has fallen sharply from its March spike. With FX volatility at its lowest level of 2023 and the Vix falling, the SG Sentiment Indicator back into risk-seeking territory, helping EUR/USD as we head to today’s US CPI data.”

“However, sentiment can only do so much, and EUR/USD is rising more than relative rates warrant, so we will need soft CPI data to justify a move through 1.10. Our forecast of headline CPI falling to 5.1% YoY. while the core measure edges up to 5.6% wouldn’t be enough.” 

See – US CPI: Banks Preview, inflation softening, good news on the horizon?

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD: Bulls pray for a dovish Fed

EUR/USD has finally taken a breather after a pretty energetic climb. The pair broke above 1.1680 in the second half of the week, reaching its highest levels in around two months before running into some selling pressure. Even so, it has gained almost two cents from the late-November dip just below 1.1500 the figure.

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3330 as traders await Fed rate decision

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3320-1.3325 region, during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain close to the highest level since October 22, touched last Thursday, with bulls awaiting a sustained strength and acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average before placing fresh bets.

Gold drifts higher above $4,200 on Fed rate cut expectations

Gold price trades in positive territory near $4,205 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher as markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December meeting on Wednesday. 

Week ahead: Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low. Dollar weakness could linger; both the aussie and the yen best positioned to gain further. Gold and oil eye Ukraine-Russia developments; a peace deal remains elusive.

The Silver disconnection is real

Silver just hit a new all-time high. Neither did gold, nor mining stocks. They all reversed on an intraday basis, but silver’s move to new highs makes it still bullish overall, while the almost complete reversals in gold and miners make the latter technically bearish.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.