EUR/USD slumps to near 1.1700 on firmer US Dollar, FOMC Minutes in focus

EUR/USD softens around 1.1705 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
US President Trump said he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper.
Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes due later on Wednesday.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair tumbles to near 1.1705 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Greenback as renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump unsettle markets. Traders await the FOMC Minutes, which will be released later on Wednesday.

Trump broadened his global trade war by threatening a 50% tariff on copper imports and signaled that he might impose levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Trump noted on Tuesday that trade talks have been going well with the European Union (EU) and China, though he added he is only days away from sending a tariff letter to the EU. Tariff uncertainty and fears of a trade war could undermine the riskier assets like the Euro in the near term.

Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest meeting minutes, due later on Wednesday. This report could offer some hints about potential interest rate reductions amid the Fed's wait-and-see approach.

The Fed last month left the key borrowing rate unchanged, keeping fed funds at the same range between 4.25% and 4.5% where it’s been since December. The markets are now expecting 50 basis points (bps) worth of Fed rate reductions by the end of this year, starting in October.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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