EUR/USD sees 1.21 ahead of a hectic Friday

The EUR/USD is treading water near three-month lows near the 1.2100 major handle.

EUR/USD: fell sharply in response to Draghi’s press conference - Westpac

The Euro's bearish stretch against the US Dollar continued on Thursday after the European Central Bank's (ECB) press conference held by ECB President Mario Draghi sent the pair sliding from the day's high around the 1.2200 handle into fresh three-month lows. The EUR/USD has declined for five of the past six trading days as the US Dollar recovers across the broader FX market, bolstered by rising US Treasury yields. Treasuries have receded for Friday's session, but the US Dollar is still riding on the high side.

EUR/USD: Bearish bias is strongest since Feb. 27

Europe has a broad dose of economic indicators dropping on Friday, but the notable entrants will be a set of speeches from ECB members, starting off with the ECB's Mersch at 05:45 GMT and Lautenschlager at 06:45, followed by a speech from the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) Chairman Jordan at 08:00 GMT. 05:30 GMT kicks things off with GDP from France, import prices from Germany at 06:00, producer costs and consumer spending for France at 06:45, as well as Spanish GDP at 07:00 before German unemployment at 08:00, finishing off with EU-wide Business Climate at 09:00 alongside Consumer Confidence and Service Sentiment. Business Climate is expected at 1.27 (prev. 1.34), while Consumer Confidence is forecast at -0.1 (prev. 0.4) with Services seen at 15.8 (prev. 16.3).

The major focus will be turning to the American market session, with the US' preliminary quarterly GDP figures dropping at 12:30 GMT alongside Personal Consumption Expenditures. The annualized GDP is forecast to grow by 2.0% (prev. 2.9%), while PCE for Q1 is expected to expand by 2.4% (prev. 1.9%).

EUR/USD analysis: at its lowest since January, breakout point being challenged

EUR/USD Levels to watch

The 1.2100 level has been a major sticking point for the pair in the past, and while the pair is holding above it for now, Euro bulls are definitely running out of room to fight, as FXStreet's Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik explained: "the EUR/USD pair tested a major long-term support and bounced, but the risk of a bearish breakout hasn't been cleared. At 1.2100, the pair topped in 2015 and 2017 and could be considered an inflection point, with a break below it opening doors for a steeper decline, which will initially target the psychological 1.20 figure. The bounce following the mentioned multi-month low has helped the pair recover up to the 1.2120 region, with short-term technical readings still favoring the downside, as in the 4 hours chart, an early spike was contained by selling interest around a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have pared their slides, but the Momentum stands well into negative territory, and the RSI at 25. The initial resistance comes at 1.2155, the low set ahead of the ECB, followed by the 1.2200 figure, where selling interest will probably reappear."

Support levels: 1.2100 1.2065 1.2020                                                                     

Resistance levels: 1.2155 1.2200 1.2245