|

EUR/GBP: BoE testimony could shift rate path – ING

Chris Turner at ING expects Sterling traders to focus on parliamentary testimony from four Bank of England policymakers and its implications for a possible March rate cut. With market pricing already assigning an 80% chance to a 25 bp move, ING sees scope for commentary to reinforce easing expectations and maintains a bias for EUR/GBP toward 0.8800.

Sterling eyes BoE speakers and March cut

"The highlight for sterling today should be parliamentary testimony from four Bank of England rate setters and what it means for a potential March rate cut. We know Alan Taylor is a dove who is already voting for a cut. We know Huw Pill is a dyed-in-the-wool hawk, who looks likely to continue dissenting against BoE easing this year."

"Megan Greene has been hawkish and looks unlikely to flip soon, but most interesting and most likely to swing the March vote to a rate cut should be Governor Andrew Bailey. Commentary that he has seen enough to justify a March rate cut could firm up that pricing in money markets (a 25bp cut is now 80% priced) and even push the market to speculating on more than 50bp in BoE easing this year."

"EUR/GBP is steady in a tight 0.8720-0.8745 range, and we have a bias to 0.8800."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1500

EUR/USD picks up some pace and bouces off earlier lows, reclaiming the 1.1500 threshold and beyond at the end of the week. The pair’s modest pullback follows a persistent risk-averse market mood and renewed buying interest for the US Dollar.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold faces renewed selling pressure, falling sharply toweard the $4,000 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar regains momentum. Escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, weighing further on the yellow metal.

Bitcoin eyes 50-day EMA breakout, Ethereum consolidates, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple trade near key technical levels on Friday as the broader cryptocurrency market pauses following last week's recovery. BTC is approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average while ETH continues to consolidate between two major EMAs.

Warsh needs to restore his reputation
We were glad to see our deeply negative reaction to the Warsh press conference was not some personal peculiarity. Just about everybody in the financial press felt the same way. The consensus is building it’s not the Fed in the dog-house but only Warsh. Today the WSJ changed it tune and blasted Warsh—"the honeymoon is already over..”
9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.