EUR/GBP: BoE testimony could shift rate path – ING

Chris Turner at ING expects Sterling traders to focus on parliamentary testimony from four Bank of England policymakers and its implications for a possible March rate cut. With market pricing already assigning an 80% chance to a 25 bp move, ING sees scope for commentary to reinforce easing expectations and maintains a bias for EUR/GBP toward 0.8800.

Sterling eyes BoE speakers and March cut

"The highlight for sterling today should be parliamentary testimony from four Bank of England rate setters and what it means for a potential March rate cut. We know Alan Taylor is a dove who is already voting for a cut. We know Huw Pill is a dyed-in-the-wool hawk, who looks likely to continue dissenting against BoE easing this year."

"Megan Greene has been hawkish and looks unlikely to flip soon, but most interesting and most likely to swing the March vote to a rate cut should be Governor Andrew Bailey. Commentary that he has seen enough to justify a March rate cut could firm up that pricing in money markets (a 25bp cut is now 80% priced) and even push the market to speculating on more than 50bp in BoE easing this year."

"EUR/GBP is steady in a tight 0.8720-0.8745 range, and we have a bias to 0.8800."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)