EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD climbs to 10-day highs above 1.0700
EUR/USD gained traction and rose to its highest level in over a week above 1.0700 in the American session on Tuesday. The renewed US Dollar weakness following the disappointing PMI data helps the pair stretch higher.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The daily chart for EUR/USD shows the pair surpassed last week’s high by a few pips and adds ground for a third consecutive day. Nevertheless, the bullish potential remains limited. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands directionless around 39, while the Momentum indicator turned south after failing to reconquer positive ground. Finally, the pair keeps developing below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly south and providing dynamic resistance at around 1.0740.
The 4-hour chart offers a neutral stance. Technical indicators head nowhere just above their midlines, losing the modest momentum seen earlier in the day. A flat 20 SMA provides near-term support at around 1.0650, while the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly south, well above the current level. The pair bottomed for the year at 1.0600, the level to watch for a steeper bearish run.
Support levels: 1.0645 1.0600 1.0570
Resistance levels: 1.0700 1.0740 1.0745
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair gained some ground on Tuesday, peaking at 1.0694 during European trading hours. The pair eased from such a level, but retains modest gains and trade at around 1.0670. According to provisional survey data, the Euro benefited from upbeat local data, as the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) and S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) showed business activity in the euro area grew at the fastest rate for nearly a year in April.
Growth is modest but still brings hope as the seasonally adjusted EU Composite PMI Index rose from 50.3 in March to 51.4 in April. According to the official report, the German private sector also returned to growth at the start of the second quarter. The Composite PMI Index moved back above 50.0 for the first time in ten months in April, printing at 50.5 following 47.7 in March. In both economies, manufacturing remains the weakest leg, as it held in contraction territory.
S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates of the United States (US) PMIs after Wall Street’s opening, while the country will publish March New Home Sales and the April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
Financial markets await first-tier US data, scheduled for later in the week. The country will release the preliminary estimate of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product on Thursday and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Euro touches five-month low on growing expectations that ECB will ease before Fed Premium
EUR/USD managed to counter a poor start of the week and reverse course despite the European currency slipping back to the 1.0600 key support against the US Dollar (USD), or five-month lows.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD climbs to 10-day highs above 1.0700
EUR/USD gained traction and rose to its highest level in over a week above 1.0700 in the American session on Tuesday. The renewed US Dollar weakness following the disappointing PMI data helps the pair stretch higher.
GBP/USD extends recovery beyond 1.2400 on broad USD weakness
GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and extended its daily rebound toward 1.2450 in the second half of the day. The US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure after weaker-than-forecast PMI data and fueled the pair's rally.
USD/JPY marks up a 34-year high as USD returns to favor
USD/JPY rises to another multi-decade high amidst enthusiasm for the US Dollar. US economic exceptionalism and a massive US Treasury bond sale are fueling USD buying. Japanese Finmin verbal intervention warning is ignored by USD/JPY.
Gold rebounds to $2,320 as US yields turn south
Gold reversed its direction and rose to the $2,320 area, erasing a large portion of its daily losses in the process. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.6% following the weak US PMI data and supports XAU/USD.
Oil dips over 1% with Russian Oil export still at multi-month high
Oil falls in the red on Russian Crude export numbers. WTI Oil falls back to $81.00. The US Dollar Index ticked below 106.00 after strong Services PMIs from France, Germany and the Eurozone.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.