EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strives for Descending Triangle breakout

EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1800 as the US Dollar declines after US President Trump’s speech.
Trump praises his economic achievements and criticized Supreme Court’s ruling against tariffs.
Investors await the flash German HICP data for February.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 1.1800 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.2% to near 97.65.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.23%	-0.17%	-0.06%	-0.18%	-0.67%	-0.32%	-0.14%
EUR	0.23%		0.06%	0.20%	0.05%	-0.45%	-0.10%	0.10%
GBP	0.17%	-0.06%		0.17%	-0.01%	-0.51%	-0.15%	0.04%
JPY	0.06%	-0.20%	-0.17%		-0.14%	-0.64%	-0.29%	-0.09%
CAD	0.18%	-0.05%	0.01%	0.14%		-0.49%	-0.15%	0.06%
AUD	0.67%	0.45%	0.51%	0.64%	0.49%		0.35%	0.55%
NZD	0.32%	0.10%	0.15%	0.29%	0.15%	-0.35%		0.20%
CHF	0.14%	-0.10%	-0.04%	0.09%	-0.06%	-0.55%	-0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

While speaking before Congress, US President Trump applauded his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court (SC) for ruling against his tariff policy. Trump said that the US SC’s ruling on tariffs was 'unfortunate', while they are the key driver behind the “economic turnaround”.

The broader outlook for the US Dollar is upbeat as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the March and April policy meetings.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades higher ahead of the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining 0.1% in January, with annual figures rising steadily by 2.1%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD rises to near 1.1805 as of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, reflecting balanced conditions. The price wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.1800, signifying a sideways trend.

The major currency pair is close to delivering a decisive break of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A daily close above the February 23 high of 1.1835 would open the door for more upside towards the key level of 1.1900. Looking down, the pair could slide towards the January 22 low of 1.1670 if it breaks below the February 19 low of 1.1742.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.

CFTC Report: CAD short covering leads; Gold buying surges

The week in one sentence: speculative positioning shifted more constructively in the week to August 25. CAD short covering led the move, followed by a broad reduction in EUR shorts and renewed Gold buying. GBP and VIX positioning also improved, while JPY positioning deteriorated and WTI flows diverged from weaker prices.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.