EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strives for Descending Triangle breakout

EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1800 as the US Dollar declines after US President Trump’s speech.
Trump praises his economic achievements and criticized Supreme Court’s ruling against tariffs.
Investors await the flash German HICP data for February.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 1.1800 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.2% to near 97.65.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.23%	-0.17%	-0.06%	-0.18%	-0.67%	-0.32%	-0.14%
EUR	0.23%		0.06%	0.20%	0.05%	-0.45%	-0.10%	0.10%
GBP	0.17%	-0.06%		0.17%	-0.01%	-0.51%	-0.15%	0.04%
JPY	0.06%	-0.20%	-0.17%		-0.14%	-0.64%	-0.29%	-0.09%
CAD	0.18%	-0.05%	0.01%	0.14%		-0.49%	-0.15%	0.06%
AUD	0.67%	0.45%	0.51%	0.64%	0.49%		0.35%	0.55%
NZD	0.32%	0.10%	0.15%	0.29%	0.15%	-0.35%		0.20%
CHF	0.14%	-0.10%	-0.04%	0.09%	-0.06%	-0.55%	-0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

While speaking before Congress, US President Trump applauded his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court (SC) for ruling against his tariff policy. Trump said that the US SC’s ruling on tariffs was 'unfortunate', while they are the key driver behind the “economic turnaround”.

The broader outlook for the US Dollar is upbeat as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the March and April policy meetings.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades higher ahead of the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining 0.1% in January, with annual figures rising steadily by 2.1%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD rises to near 1.1805 as of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, reflecting balanced conditions. The price wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.1800, signifying a sideways trend.

The major currency pair is close to delivering a decisive break of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A daily close above the February 23 high of 1.1835 would open the door for more upside towards the key level of 1.1900. Looking down, the pair could slide towards the January 22 low of 1.1670 if it breaks below the February 19 low of 1.1742.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

EUR/USD gathers traction, approaches 1.1800

EUR/USD manages to reverse Tuesday’s pullback, advancing to two-day highs near the 1.1800 hurdle in the latter part of Wednesday’s session. The pair’s decent uptick comes on the back of the modest retracement in the US Dollar, as investors continue to closely follow developments on the trade front and news from the White House in the wake of President Trump’s SOTU speech.

GBP/USD challenges multi-day highs near 1.3530

GBP/USD leaves behind the previous day’s decline and regains fresh upside traction on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.3500 barrier in a context of a modest decline in the Greenback and a generalised improved mood in the risk-linked space. Meanwhile, the US tariff narrative continues to dictate the mood among market participants after Presidet Trump’s SOTU speech failed to surprise markets.

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