EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strives for Descending Triangle breakout

EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1800 as the US Dollar declines after US President Trump’s speech.
Trump praises his economic achievements and criticized Supreme Court’s ruling against tariffs.
Investors await the flash German HICP data for February.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 1.1800 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.2% to near 97.65.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.23%	-0.17%	-0.06%	-0.18%	-0.67%	-0.32%	-0.14%
EUR	0.23%		0.06%	0.20%	0.05%	-0.45%	-0.10%	0.10%
GBP	0.17%	-0.06%		0.17%	-0.01%	-0.51%	-0.15%	0.04%
JPY	0.06%	-0.20%	-0.17%		-0.14%	-0.64%	-0.29%	-0.09%
CAD	0.18%	-0.05%	0.01%	0.14%		-0.49%	-0.15%	0.06%
AUD	0.67%	0.45%	0.51%	0.64%	0.49%		0.35%	0.55%
NZD	0.32%	0.10%	0.15%	0.29%	0.15%	-0.35%		0.20%
CHF	0.14%	-0.10%	-0.04%	0.09%	-0.06%	-0.55%	-0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

While speaking before Congress, US President Trump applauded his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court (SC) for ruling against his tariff policy. Trump said that the US SC’s ruling on tariffs was 'unfortunate', while they are the key driver behind the “economic turnaround”.

The broader outlook for the US Dollar is upbeat as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the March and April policy meetings.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades higher ahead of the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining 0.1% in January, with annual figures rising steadily by 2.1%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD rises to near 1.1805 as of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, reflecting balanced conditions. The price wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.1800, signifying a sideways trend.

The major currency pair is close to delivering a decisive break of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A daily close above the February 23 high of 1.1835 would open the door for more upside towards the key level of 1.1900. Looking down, the pair could slide towards the January 22 low of 1.1670 if it breaks below the February 19 low of 1.1742.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

GBP/USD trims losses, disputes 1.3400

GBP/USD retreats after reaching a three-week high above 1.3430 and puts the 1.3400 region to the test on Thursday. Although easing political uncertainty in the UK helps the quid limit its downside, escalating tensions in the Middle East support the Greenback, keeping Cable under scrutiny.

EUR/USD off highs, back to 1.1430

EUR/USD loses momentum after briefly climbing to the 1.1450 area earlier in the day, revisiting the 1.1430 region on Thursday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East fail to underpin the US Dollar, although a broad sense of caution continues to prevail among market participants.

Gold climbs to two-day peaks near $4,130

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Bitcoin stalls as mixed ETF flows, renewed US-Iran tensions cap upside

Bitcoin trades at $63,000 on Thursday, recovering slightly after facing rejection near $64,000. Renewed geopolitical uncertainty has dampened risk appetite, limiting BTC upside potential.

Japan may be changing its Yen strategy, but markets don’t look scared

Japan may be changing its intervention playbook, but that might not be enough to rescue the battered Yen. With USD/JPY hovering at four-decade highs, the currency’s weakness is being driven less by speculative pressure and more by a powerful structural force: the wide US-Japan rate gap.

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