EUR/USD Price Analysis: Justifies falling wedge breakout to regain 1.0200

EUR/USD snaps four-day downtrend at 20-year low, renews intraday high of late.
Firmer RSI, MACD joins bullish chart pattern’s confirmation to favor buyers.
100-HMA lures buyers, sellers have a bumpy road to the south.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

EUR/USD buyers return to the table after a four-day absence as the quote renews its intraday high near 1.0215 heading into Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair’s latest gains could be linked to the confirmation of a bullish chart pattern called a falling wedge.

The wedge breakout gains strength as it takes place at the lowest levels in nearly 20 years. Also favoring the upside momentum are the firmer RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals.

That said, the latest recovery could initially aim for the 1.0280 hurdle before directing buyers to battle the 100-HMA level of 1.0340.

In a case where EUR/USD remains firmer past 1.0340, the odds of its rally towards the weekly high near $1.0465 can’t be ruled out.

On the contrary, an immediate ascending support line near 1.0180 restricts nearby declines of the EUR/USD pair.

Following that, the recent low of 1.0161 could test the bears before directing them to the 1.0100 round figure.

Should EUR/USD remains bearish past 1.0100, the bears may aim for the 1.0000 psychological magnet.

EUR/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Further recovery expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.0207
Today Daily Change	0.0024
Today Daily Change %	0.24%
Today daily open	1.0183

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0474
Daily SMA50	1.0552
Daily SMA100	1.077
Daily SMA200	1.1087

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0277
Previous Daily Low	1.0162
Previous Weekly High	1.0615
Previous Weekly Low	1.0366
Previous Monthly High	1.0774
Previous Monthly Low	1.0359
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0206
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0233
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0138
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0092
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0022
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0253
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0322
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0368

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD risks a deeper drop below 1.1750

EUR/USD keeps its vacillating mood in place as the the NA session drwas to a close on Tuesday, hovering below the 1.1800 hurdle amid acceptable gains in the US Dollar. In the meantime, market participants and the FX galaxy are expected to closely follow President Trump’s SOTU speech around 2AM GMT.

GBP/USD regains 1.3500 and above

GBP/USD extends its advance for the third day in a row on Tuesday, this time retesting the area beyond the 1.3500 hurdle. Cable’s uptick comes despite decent gains in the Greenback and the dovish message from the BoE’s Bailey at the UK Parliament.

Gold appears offered around $5,150

Gold is giving back a good portion of the recent multi-day rally, receding to the $5,150 zone per troy ounce amid the decent bounce in the US Dollar and mixed US Treasuty yields. In the meantime, markets’ attention remain on upcoming comments from Fed speakers.

Australia CPI to highlight persistent price pressures, backing a hawkish outlook

Australia will release its key set of inflation figures for the month of January on Wednesday, with the Consumer Price Index expected to rise by 3.7%, slightly lower than the 3.8% in the last month of 2025.

The Citrini report: How a debatable AI narrative can shake Wall Street

That AI-related headline alone was enough to rattle investors.US stocks slid sharply on Monday after a widely circulated Citrini Research memo outlined a hypothetical “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, warning that rapid AI adoption could push US unemployment into double digits as early as by mid-2028.

XRP pressured by weak ETF flows and declining retail interest

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower, trading above its intraday low of $1.32 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The decline from its weekly opening of $1.39 reflects heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, accentuated by tariff-triggered uncertainty.