EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls attack 200-SMA as ECB week begins with risk-on mood

EUR/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high amid firmer sentiment.
US regulators unveil action plan to tame risks emanating from Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank.
Hidden bearish RSI divergence teases another pullback from 200-SMA but 100-SMA defends bulls.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

EUR/USD grinds near an intraday high of around 1.0700 during a three-day uptrend to Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the major currency pair pokes the 200-SMA as the market’s upbeat sentiment weighs on the US Dollar’s haven demand. It should be noted, however, that the hidden bearish RSI divergence challenges the Euro buyers ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, up for Thursday.

Also read: AUD/USD marches towards 0.6650 as fears from SVB abate, Aussie employment, US inflation eyed

That said, the EUR/USD’s higher highs on price fail to gain support from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14 as it forms a lower high, which in turn suggests a lack of enough bullish momentum to cross the immediate key hurdle, namely the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.0710.

Even if the EUR/USD manages to surpass the 1.0710 resistance, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its early February-March downside, near 1.0780, will precede the mid-February swing high near 1.0810 to challenge the bulls.

On the flip side, EUR/USD pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the 100-SMA support of 1.0620. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from the last Wednesday, close to 1.0585 at the latest, will be in focus.

In a case where the EUR/USD pair remains bearish past 1.0585, the odds of witnessing a fresh monthly low, currently around 1.0525, can’t be ruled out.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.069
Today Daily Change	0.0053
Today Daily Change %	0.50%
Today daily open	1.0637

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0634
Daily SMA50	1.0722
Daily SMA100	1.0534
Daily SMA200	1.0326

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0701
Previous Daily Low	1.0574
Previous Weekly High	1.0701
Previous Weekly Low	1.0524
Previous Monthly High	1.1033
Previous Monthly Low	1.0533
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0652
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0622
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0574
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0511
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0447
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.07
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0764
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0827

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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