EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls attack 200-SMA as ECB week begins with risk-on mood

EUR/USD grinds near an intraday high of around 1.0700 during a three-day uptrend to Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the major currency pair pokes the 200-SMA as the market’s upbeat sentiment weighs on the US Dollar’s haven demand. It should be noted, however, that the hidden bearish RSI divergence challenges the Euro buyers ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, up for Thursday.

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That said, the EUR/USD’s higher highs on price fail to gain support from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14 as it forms a lower high, which in turn suggests a lack of enough bullish momentum to cross the immediate key hurdle, namely the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.0710.

Even if the EUR/USD manages to surpass the 1.0710 resistance, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its early February-March downside, near 1.0780, will precede the mid-February swing high near 1.0810 to challenge the bulls.

On the flip side, EUR/USD pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the 100-SMA support of 1.0620. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from the last Wednesday, close to 1.0585 at the latest, will be in focus.

In a case where the EUR/USD pair remains bearish past 1.0585, the odds of witnessing a fresh monthly low, currently around 1.0525, can’t be ruled out.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected