- EUR/USD prints the first daily gain in five around the lowest levels in 10 weeks.
- US Dollar retreats as policymakers deliver debt ceiling agreement, challenges to passage prod the Euro buyers.
- Hawkish Fed bets versus fears of Eurozone recession also exert downside pressure on EUR/USD.
- Holidays in Germany, US to restrict Euro moves ahead of Eurozone inflation, US NFP.
EUR/USD picks up bids to print the first daily gain in five around 1.0730 amid early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Euro pair consolidates the first monthly loss in three amid the market’s cautious optimism about the US policymakers’ ability to avoid the ‘catastrophic’ default. Adding strength to the pair’s positioning could be the month-end resizing amid the holidays in Germany, France, the UK and the US on Monday.
US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican, as well as the House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy finally agreed over terms to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling through January 2025 during the weekend.
Following the initial announcements, US President Biden strongly urged both chambers to pass the agreement while McCarthy appears to have no difficulties in getting the deal through the House. However, some of the policymakers have clearly shown their discomfort with the compromises that together tried to avoid the debt payment default, which in turn challenges the market’s positive outlook about the key issue.
Alternatively, the last week’s upbeat prints of the top-tier data including Durable Goods Orders and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for the said month, known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, underpin the hawkish Fed bets and weigh on the EUR/USD price. On the same line could be downward revision to the German Q1 2023 growth numbers, which in turn renewed recession fears in the bloc and prod the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks.
Against this backdrop, S&P500 Futures remain mildly bid near the highest levels since August 2022, up 0.30% intraday around 4,225 whereas the bond markets are inactive amid off in multiple key bourses by the press time. With this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from from a 10-week high and allow the Euro pair sellers to lick their wounds.
Looking ahead, preliminary readings of the German and Eurozone inflation numbers will precede the US jobs report for May, especially the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), to direct the short-term EUR/USD moves. However, major attention will be given to the US Congress voting on the debt ceiling deal.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD justifies Friday’s Doji candlestick above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.0685 by the press time. The recovery moves, however, need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its March-April upside, near 1.0740 at the latest.
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