EUR/USD: Moderately positive medium-term, not optimistic long-term – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The sceptre of inflation is back. How inflation concerns are affecting EUR/USD this time round? Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, expects the shared currency to struggle in the long-term.

Moderately positive regarding EUR/USD medium-term

“Whereas core inflation is slowly, but more or less steadily falling in the US, it remains on a firmly rising trend in the Eurozone. That means the ECB has to act in a restrictive manner, or has less scope to ease its monetary policy in the foreseeable future. As a result, I remain moderately positive regarding EUR/USD medium-term.”

“Medium to long-term things are looking differently. The USD seems more resilient against the risks of recession than the EUR because the particular structural problems might emerge during times of a recession in Europe. If it became clear that more rapid QT was required in the fight against inflation the ECB might struggle more with these measures than the Fed. These arguments are the reason why medium to long-term I am not optimistic for EUR/USD.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.