The Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.0845 and 1.0900. EUR is expected to continue to rise, but it might take a while before 1.0915 comes into view, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Upside risk is intact while above 1.0825
24-HOUR VIEW: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘the risk for today appears to be tilted to the upside, but it remains to be seen if EUR can break clearly above the major resistance at 1.0850.’ We added, ‘if there is a clear break of 1.0850, EUR could continue to rise, but the next major resistance at 1.0915 is unlikely to come into view for now.’ EUR subsequently broke above 1.0850 and soared to 1.0899. EUR closed at 1.0865 (+0.32%). The sharp and rapid rise appears to be overdone, and EUR is unlikely to rise much further. Today, EUR is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.0845 and 1.0900.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 1.0785), we indicated that ‘while the increase in momentum suggests further EUR strength, it is too early to determine if it can reach the major resistance at 1.0850.’ After EUR rose, we indicated on Monday (08 Jul, spot at 1.0825) that ‘the risk of EUR breaking above 1.0850 has increased, albeit moderately.’ Yesterday, EUR broke above 1.0850, reaching a high of 1.0899. We continue to expect EUR to rise, even though severely overbought conditions suggest it might take a couple of days before 1.0915 comes into view. The upside risk is intact as long as 1.0825 (‘strong support’ level previously was at 1.0780 yesterday) is not breached.”
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