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EUR/USD: Looks to US inflation to break the monotony around mid-1.2100s

  • EUR/USD refrain from copying Tuesday’s run-up, refreshes intraday low.
  • Trading sentiment dwindles amid mixed updates, light calendar and pre-US CPI caution.
  • S&P 500 Futures drop 0.1%, US Treasury yields seesaw near previous day’s close.
  • Germany’s HICP, risk catalysts can offer intermediate moves.

EUR/USD turns red, refreshes intraday low to 1.2140, during Wednesday’s Asian session. The major currency pair jumped to the new high in 11 weeks the previous day as the US dollar dropped to unfamiliar territories since late February. While mildly bid US Treasury yields might have favored the quote on Tuesday, cautious sentiment ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) seems to weigh on the pair of late.

Market’s mood sours as the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine updates have been mixed and the Middle East tensions escalate during the pre-data caution. The vaccine news mentions China’s sinovac as a strong cure to the pandemic while also spotting cases of blood clotting after the Johnson & Johnson covid vaccine inoculation.

It’s worth mentioning that the Fed policymakers’ sustained refrain from policy alteration seems to gain a little fanfare among the market bears expecting strong inflation to be in fashion going forward.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.10% while the US 10-year Treasury yields take rounds to 1.62% by the press time.

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers reiterated their rejection to discuss tapering while also keeping the economic outlook brighter yesterday. Upbeat ZEW data from the bloc, US JOLTs Job Openings and NIFB Business Optimism Index also contributed to the EUR/USD upside.

Moving on, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), expected to reaffirm an initial forecast of 2.1% YoY for April, can offer immediate direction to EUR/USD traders, coupled with the risk-related headlines. However, nothing matters more than the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, expected to register a 3.6% yearly jump versus 2.6% prior. Traders will be particularly interested in a less sustained jump of inflation to pamper buyers.

Read: US Consumer Price Index April Preview: The two base effects of inflation

Technical analysis

A two-month-old rising wedge bearish formation restricts short-term EUR/USD moves between 1.2035 and 1.2200.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.2144
Today Daily Change-5 pips
Today Daily Change %-0.04%
Today daily open1.2149
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.206
Daily SMA501.1951
Daily SMA1001.2047
Daily SMA2001.1954
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2182
Previous Daily Low1.2123
Previous Weekly High1.2172
Previous Weekly Low1.1986
Previous Monthly High1.215
Previous Monthly Low1.1713
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2159
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2145
Daily Pivot Point S11.2121
Daily Pivot Point S21.2093
Daily Pivot Point S31.2062
Daily Pivot Point R11.2179
Daily Pivot Point R21.221
Daily Pivot Point R31.2238

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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