EUR/USD: Likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.0420 – UOB Group

The Euro (EUR) is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.0420; the next support at 1.0390 is not expected to come into view. In the longer run, EUR must break and remain below the 1.0333 low before further decline can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Next support at 1.0390 is not expected to come into view

24-HOUR VIEW: “After EUR traded higher at the open yesterday, we indicated that it ‘could edge higher to 1.0520.’ However, we were of the view that ‘the strong resistance at 1.0560 is unlikely to come under threat.’ Our view was not wrong, as EUR rose to 1.0530, pulling back to close at 1.0494 (+0.74%). EUR fell in early Asian trade today, and downward momentum appears to be building, albeit tentatively. Today, EUR is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.0420. The next support at 1.0390 is not expected to come into view. Resistance is at 1.0495, followed by 1.0520.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (25 Nov, spot at 1.0475) is still valid. As highlighted, while the weakness in EUR remains intact, it must break and remain below last Friday’s low of 1.0333 before further decline can be expected. The likelihood of EUR breaking below 1.0333 is not high, but it will remain intact as long as 1.0560 (no change in ‘strong resistance’) is not breached in the next few days. Looking ahead, if EUR breaks above 1.0560, it would suggest that the weakness from late last week has ended.”