EUR/USD holds above 61.8% Fib, focus on Fed minutes

Broad based weakness in the US dollar in Asia helped the EUR/USD hold above 1.0527, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.0340 to 1.0829.

German IFO, Eurozone CPI eyed

German IFO sentiment indices are seen largely unchanged in February. The Eurozone CPI for January could be revised lower to -0.8% m/m from the initial print of 0.5%. The annualised figure is seen unchanged at 1.8%. A downward revision of the CPI would only add to the bearish sentiment around the common currency.

The focus also remains on the Franco-German yield spread, given the heightened political uncertainty in France. Widening of the yield spread could weigh over the common currency.

Fed minutes - focus on inflation, balance sheet size

The Fed minutes due for release later today could add more color to the strong words on inflation seen in the Fed statement released on Feb. 1. The other important thing to watch out for is the commentary on the possible downsizing of the Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Interest rate hike coupled with the talk of trimming the balance sheet size could lead to a broad based spike in the US dollar. 

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The spot was last seen trading around 1.0550. A break above 1.0561 (Feb 14 low) would expose 1.0594 (5-DMA). The next major hurdle is lined up at 1.0620 (Jan 30 low). On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 1.0527 (61.8% fib retracement) could yield a sell-off to 1.05 (Dec 22 high), under which the losses could be extended to 1.0455 (76.4% fib retracement).