|

EUR/USD extends the decline and pierces 1.0700

  • The selling pressure around EUR/USD remains unchanged.
  • German Industrial Production surprised to the downside.
  • Chief Powell will take centre stage later in the NA session.

Sellers remain well in control of the sentiment in the global markets and now drag EUR/USD briefly to the sub-1.0700 region on Tuesday.

EUR/USD remains offered ahead of Powell

EUR/USD is down for the fourth session in a row and ephemerally probes the area below the 1.0700 support on Tuesday.

Further improvement in the sentiment surrounding the dollar, the resurgence of the risk aversion and increasing cautiousness ahead of Fed’s Powell (due later in the European evening) all keep the pair under extra downside pressure in the first half of the week and underpin the sharp rejection from 2023 peaks past 1.1030 recorded just four days ago.

Earlier in the session, the Industrial Production in Germany shrank more than expected 3.1% MoM in December, while the trade deficit in France widened more than forecast to €14.93B also in December.

In the US, Chair Powell’s interview at the Economic Club of Washington is expected to grab all the attention later in the NA trading hours. In the calendar, Balance of Trade results and Consumer Credit Change are due.

What to look for around EUR

The steep sell-off in EUR/USD post-US NFP remains unabated on Tuesday and drags the pair to briefly test multi-week lows in the sub-1.0700 zone.

In the meantime, price action around the European currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the potential next moves from the ECB after the central bank delivered a 50 bps at its meeting last week.

Back to the euro area, recession concerns now appear to have dwindled, which at the same time remain an important driver sustaining the ongoing recovery in the single currency as well as the hawkish narrative from the ECB.

Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Flash Inflation Rate (Thursday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle amidst dwindling bets for a recession in the region and still elevated inflation. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, the pair is retreating 0.08% at 1.0716 and the breakdown of 1.0697 (monthly low February 7) would target 1.0662 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0481 (2023 low January 6). On the flip side, the next up barrier emerges at 1.1032 (2023 high February 2) followed by 1.1100 (round level) and finally 1.1184 (weekly low March 31 2022).

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD picks up bids above 0.7100 after RBA-speak

AUD/USD picks up bids above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Tuesday, following hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and Governor Michele Bullock. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Fed's hawkish outlook remain supportive of the bullish US Dollar undertone, which could limit the pair. The crucial Trump-Xi summit is later this week and remains in focus.

USD/JPY holds small gains near 157.50 as JPY intervention risks loom

USD/JPY posts modest gains while trading near 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday as intervention fears help limit losses for the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish rate hike to a 31-year high keeps JPY bulls on the back foot. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a bullish undertone amid the Fed's hawkish outlook and escalating Middle East tensions, providing tailwinds for the pair.

Gold struggles below $4,350 as hawkish Fed offsets sliding bond yields, softer USD

Gold attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick, and slides below $4,350 in the last hour, though the downside seems limited. The US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook is seen as a key factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.

Pepe signals trend reversal amid a short squeeze
Pepe (PEPE) price is up nearly 30% in the last 24 hours, outperforming most top cryptocurrencies and hinting at further upside potential. Derivatives data suggest a short squeeze of more than $2 million during the same period, forcing traders to buy back positions in the meme coin. The technical outlook for PEPE indicates an upside bias as bullish momentum strengthens.
WTI looks to reclaim $93.00 after defending 38.2% Fibo. support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) attracts some buyers during the Asian session, snapping a four-day losing streak to sub-$91.00 levels, or a nearly two-week low touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades just below the $93.00 mark, up around 1.40% for the day, as the focus remains on the Middle East crisis.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.