|

EUR/USD climbs on high inflation data in Germany, as the USD sinks post US NFP

  • EUR/USD reached a two-week high at 1.0700 and finished the week with minimal gains.
  • Sentiment shifted sour on a default by the Silicon Valley Bank in the US, at the risk of spillover in the sector.
  • US jobs data was mixed but flashed signs of cooling down.
  • Germany’s inflation was unchanged and warranted further tightening by the ECB.

The EUR/USD rose 0.45% late in the New York session in a volatile trading day, with Wall Street set to register substantial losses blamed on a US bank collapse. That overshadowed an awaited US jobs report, scrutinized by investors as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that it would increase rates faster. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD exchanges hand at 1.0639.

Risk aversion failed to bolster the USD amidst a potential bank crisis in the US

The US cash equity markets are about to finish the week on the back foot. US regulators seized the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) after the institution failed to raise capital to meet its requirements. That sent shockwaves across different asset segments as worries for a spillover increased.

Aside from this, the US Department of Labor revealed the February Nonfarm Payrolls report. Figures exceeded forecasts of 205,000 and came at 311,000. Even though the headline made a case for a stronger US Dollar (USD), delving into the details, the Unemployment Rate edged to 3.6% vs. 3.4% estimates, a sign that the labor market is cooling. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 4.6% YoY, below 4.7% estimates.

In the Eurozone (EU) front, Germany reported inflationary data at 8.7% YoY, unchanged from the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 9.3% YoY, cementing the case for further tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB).

EUR/USD Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price1.0641
Today Daily Change0.0062
Today Daily Change %0.59
Today daily open1.0579
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0636
Daily SMA501.0723
Daily SMA1001.0527
Daily SMA2001.0326
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0591
Previous Daily Low1.0538
Previous Weekly High1.0692
Previous Weekly Low1.0533
Previous Monthly High1.1033
Previous Monthly Low1.0533
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0571
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0558
Daily Pivot Point S11.0548
Daily Pivot Point S21.0516
Daily Pivot Point S31.0495
Daily Pivot Point R11.0601
Daily Pivot Point R21.0622
Daily Pivot Point R31.0654

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1800

EUR/USD moves sideways in a narrow channel below 1.1800 as the market volatility remains low ahead of the New Year holiday. On Tuesday, investors will pay close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 as trading conditions remain thin

GBP/USD corrects lower after posting strong gains in the previous week and trades below 1.3500 on Monday. With the action in financial markets turning subdued following the Christmas holiday, however, the pair's losses remain limited.

Gold holds above $4,300 after setting yet another record high

Spot Gold traded as high as $4,550 a troy ounce on Monday, fueled by persistent US Dollar weakness and a dismal mood. The XAU/USD pair was hit sharply by profit-taking during US trading hours and retreated towards $4,300, where buyers reappeared.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).