EUR/USD: bulls tire and daily cloud base, (1.1737), under threat

  • EUR/USD gives up London gains, after piercing the 76.4 Fib of 1.1853-1.1508 and the 55-D SMA.
  • Eyes on the downside, (Fed on track play), 1.1737 comes as the Daily Cloud Base.

EUR/USD gave up the pre-North America games falling below the 21-hr SMA at 1.760, where previously, EUR/USD has made a London session high of 1.1790. The single unit has scored a session low of 1.1740. 

Initially, EUR/USD picked up a bid in the EZ Surprise Sentix rebounding at 12.1 in July beating the 8.2 consensuses and the prior 9.3. However, this still leaves the index at a low level and wasn't enough to sustain the break higher. The pair dropped back to the support of the 50-D SMA which has held so far at 1.1741. Germany also reported a slightly lower than expected trade surplus for May (EUR19.7bn),  reflecting better (and better than expected) Eurozone economic data.

"Intraday, the EUR’s undertone has been supported by supportive comments from ECB’s Coeure who stated that the trade tensions which have emerged so far do not have the “potential to derail the recovery”," analysts at Scotiabank noted. 

Nonfarm payrolls: Fed on track

In more recent trade, the euro has succumbed to broad dollar strength, as traders play the central bank divergence after a goldilocks nonfarm payrolls outcome on Friday, that did make for some initial profit taking in the dollar due to subdued wages. 

"On the one hand, nonfarm payrolls posted a decent 213k rise in June, above market expectations, and has averaged a healthy 211k per month in Q2. On the other, the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 4% last month, from 3.8% in April, driven by an expanding labour force. Wage growth remains sluggish. Witness a softening in average hourly earnings to 2.7%yoy in June versus 2.8%yoy in May. Still, the Fed looks set  to continued its gradual tightening stance in coming months, judging by June’s hawkish FOMC minutes." - analysts at RBS Economics explained. 

EUR/USD levels

Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, EUR/USD set a new short-term high after piercing the 76.4 Fib of 1.1853-1.1508 and the 55-D SMA. However, the pair has been faded at the highs is has moved to a flat position for the day within the wider 1.1500-1.1850/60 range. The first upside technical level of significance comes as 1.1772/1.1775, (55-Day MA / 76.4% Fibo 1.1853-1.1508). Then, 1.1817 is the 30-Day Upper Bollinger. To the downside, 1.1737 is the Daily Cloud Base, 1.1681is the Daily Low Jul 6, 1.1659 as the 10-Day MA and 1.1656 as the 21-Day MA.

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