|

EUR/GBP steady above 0.8650 as traders weigh US-EU deal and PMI data

  • EUR/GBP trades around 0.8660 on Thursday, consolidating after Wednesday’s rebound.
  • The US and EU have struck a trade agreement, combining tariff relief with large-scale energy and investment pledges.
  • Eurozone PMI showed manufacturing back in expansion, while UK PMI hit its strongest pace since April on robust services despite deeper factory weakness.

The Euro (EUR) is holding steady against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, consolidating gains after Wednesday’s sharp rebound. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8660, keeping a foothold above the 0.8650 handle as traders digest the latest transatlantic trade deal and fresh Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings from both economies.

The United States (US) and the European Union (EU) unveiled a long-awaited joint trade framework on Thursday. The pact caps most tariffs at 15%, easing concerns over escalating protectionism, while leaving US auto duties at 27.5% in place until the EU enacts its own tariff-cutting measures. As part of the agreement, the EU committed to purchase $750 billion in US energy supplies, including LNG, oil, and nuclear by 2028, alongside $40 billion in American AI chips to secure technological supply chains.

In return, European companies will channel $600 billion in investments into strategic US sectors, ranging from manufacturing to clean energy. The deal also covers digital trade, regulatory alignment, and sustainability standards, underscoring a shift from short-term tariff relief toward long-term industrial cooperation. For the Euro, the pact is seen as supportive by reinforcing industrial demand and cementing economic ties with the world’s largest economy.

Eurozone PMI surprises on the upside

The HCOB Composite PMI (August preliminary) rose to 51.1, above the forecast of 50.7 and improving from 50.9 in July. Manufacturing activity returned to expansion for the first time in months, climbing to 50.5 compared with expectations of 49.5. The services sector eased slightly to 50.7, just below the forecast of 50.8 and down from 51.0 in July, though it still signaled growth.

UK PMI highlights services strength, manufacturing drag

The S&P Global Composite PMI (August preliminary) advanced to 53.0, exceeding the forecast of 51.6 and rising from 51.5 in July, marking the fastest pace since April. Services drove the improvement, with the index climbing to 53.6, above expectations of 51.8 and unchanged from July. In contrast, manufacturing weakened further, slipping to 47.3, below the forecast of 48.3 and down from 48.0 in July, pointing to a deeper contraction in the sector.

Market attention will now turn to upcoming consumer confidence data for additional direction. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (August preliminary) is scheduled for release later on Thursday, with expectations at -14.9 compared to -14.7 in July, signaling that household sentiment may remain subdued.

In the United Kingdom, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index (August) is due on Friday, with markets forecasting -20, slightly weaker than the -19 recorded in July. These readings will provide further insight into household spending prospects and could influence the near-term trajectory of EUR/GBP.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Read more.

Next release: Thu Aug 21, 2025 14:00 (Prel)

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: -14.9

Previous: -14.7

Source: European Commission

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

More from Vishal Chaturvedi
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.