EUR/CAD Price Analysis: Bears picking up discounts on a fade on rallies

EUR/CAD bears seeking downside extension to daily demand area.
Discounts are being handed out to the bears as they test bullish commitments.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Regarding the prior analysis, EUR/CAD Price Analysis: Bears seek a break of hourly support, the bears got what they wished for in a fade on rallies.

Prior analysis

EUR/CAD's upside correction has been capped by a significant Fibonacci level and the focus remains firmly on the downside.

The following is a top-down analysis that illustrates the bias.

Daily chart

The daily chart's trajectory is south which raises prospects of a short opportunity from the lower time frames.

1-hour chart

From a 1-hour perspective, the current support structure offers a faster entry point to target the downside from a restest of the support that would be expected to act as resistance.

Momentum is bearish and the price is well below the 21-SMA.

Live market, 1-hour chart

As illustrated, the price has since melted to the downside and bears indeed were able to capitalize on a restest of the prior support structure for a discount on the short side.

The price has again offered a discount from fresh lows to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement that meets prior spike lows, a confluence that would be expected to now act as resistance.

That being said, slightly higher up, in line with a 61.8% Fibo, a deeper correction to the higher structure will offer a better discount in seeking a downside extension to the daily demand area between 1.4750 and 1.4695.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD finds support but stays below 1.3400

GBP/USD found support near 1.3370 after starting the week on the back foot but lost its recovery momentum after testing 1.3400 on Monday. The pair's upside remains capped as investors await clarity regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Later in the day, comments from central bank officials will be watched closely by market participants.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1400 as focus remains on Middle East

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1400 following the bearish action seen during the weekly opening. As the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict keeps investors on edge, the pair's upside remains limited, while hawkish ECB expectations help the Euro stay resilient against its rivals. In the second half of the day, investors will pay close attention to comments from central bank officials.

Gold struggles to rebound, trades well below $4,100

Gold struggles to recover after opening with a bearish gap and trades well below $4,100, losing more than 1% on a daily basis. The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its rivals as markets cling to a cautious stance amid the persistent uncertainty in the Middle East. Tuesday's CPI inflation data from the US and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony could trigger the next big reaction in the precious metal.

Bitcoin retreats as Middle East conflict overshadows ETF inflows

Bitcoin struggles to hold above $64,000 after a modest recovery the previous week. Risk sentiment dampens as tensions in the Middle East escalated after the US launched fresh strikes on Iran on Sunday, weighing on BTC. Meanwhile, improving institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds ending an eight-week streak of net outflows, has provided only limited support amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

The US won't default on $39 trillion debt: Why financial repression is coming and Gold is the only hedge

As the US national debt surges past $39 trillion, policymakers face an unsustainable economic trajectory that threatens the global financial system. With a formal default out of the question and fiscal austerity politically unfeasible, the US government is increasingly likely to rely on financial repression, artificially keeping interest rates below inflation to erode the real value of its debt.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.