EUR/CAD holds gains near 1.6150 as Oil dips, Germany HICP eyed

EUR/CAD appreciates on increased risk appetite amid easing US–Venezuela tensions.
The Canadian Dollar may face pressure as renewed US access to Venezuelan crude weighs on Canadian Oil demand.
Germany’s flash December CPI and HICP data will be closely watched later on Tuesday.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD gains ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.6140 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross appreciates as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) strengthens, while the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face pressure amid expectations of renewed United States (US) and corporate access to Venezuela’s vast crude reserves, weighing on Canadian Oil demand from its largest buyer.

Additionally, speculation around future Venezuelan output and a muted initial price response have heightened concerns that a sustained decline in Oil prices would undermine a key pillar of Canada’s external earnings and currency support. Meanwhile, the global Oil outlook into 2026 looks softer, with ample supply and more subdued demand expectations reducing the downside cushion for the CAD.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price declines after registering more than 1.5% gains in the previous session, trading around $57.70 at the time of writing. Traders evaluate the impact of US actions toward Venezuela on global Oil supply. Despite holding the world’s largest proven reserves, Venezuela contributes less than 1% share of global output, limiting the potential price impact of any export disruption.

Traders will likely observe the HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone. Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for December will also be eyed later in the day.

The Euro is supported after the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled it will keep interest rates on hold for an extended period following its December 2025 decision. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that heightened uncertainty makes it difficult to offer clear forward guidance on future policy decisions.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.