EUR/CAD holds gains near 1.6150 as Oil dips, Germany HICP eyed

EUR/CAD appreciates on increased risk appetite amid easing US–Venezuela tensions.
The Canadian Dollar may face pressure as renewed US access to Venezuelan crude weighs on Canadian Oil demand.
Germany’s flash December CPI and HICP data will be closely watched later on Tuesday.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD gains ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.6140 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross appreciates as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) strengthens, while the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face pressure amid expectations of renewed United States (US) and corporate access to Venezuela’s vast crude reserves, weighing on Canadian Oil demand from its largest buyer.

Additionally, speculation around future Venezuelan output and a muted initial price response have heightened concerns that a sustained decline in Oil prices would undermine a key pillar of Canada’s external earnings and currency support. Meanwhile, the global Oil outlook into 2026 looks softer, with ample supply and more subdued demand expectations reducing the downside cushion for the CAD.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price declines after registering more than 1.5% gains in the previous session, trading around $57.70 at the time of writing. Traders evaluate the impact of US actions toward Venezuela on global Oil supply. Despite holding the world’s largest proven reserves, Venezuela contributes less than 1% share of global output, limiting the potential price impact of any export disruption.

Traders will likely observe the HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone. Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for December will also be eyed later in the day.

The Euro is supported after the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled it will keep interest rates on hold for an extended period following its December 2025 decision. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that heightened uncertainty makes it difficult to offer clear forward guidance on future policy decisions.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

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