ECB's Villeroy: Need to remain alert and agile in next meetings
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that need to remain alert and agile in all of their next meetings, per Reuters.
Key takeaways
"Return to normal monetary policy is a very positive step; nevertheless, in still abnormal times, it does not necessarily mean an end to the journey."
"We will monitor closely the possible spillovers of energy prices."
"If ever consequences from energy price volatility are lasting and propagating, we could possibly adapt our monetary policy."
"We have to react to dynamics that risk pushing inflation off target: what matters is whether a deviation from target is more likely to increase or to decrease."
"If required, it is not compulsory to go in incremental steps."
"Waiting too long for events to materialize can result in substantial losses."
"Inflation expectations do not so far reflect a risk of lasting spillover."
"A 10% appreciation in the Euro would broadly compensate the inflationary effect of a possible 10 Euro increase of the oil price."
"Barring a major exogenous shock, including possible new military developments in the Middle East, if monetary policy were to move in the next six months, it could be more in the direction of accommodation."
Market reaction
EUR/USD stays in its tight daily range below 1.1500 following these comments.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
