ECB to raise interest rates by only 50 bps in December after a decline in Eurozone inflation – Commerzbank

Euroarea flash inflation was 10.0% year-on-year in November, down from 10.6% YoY in October. Data strengthen Commerzbank’s expectation that the ECB will only raise key rates by 50 basis points at its December meeting.

Euro area inflation rate falls surprisingly to 10.0%

“The inflation rate in the euro area declined much more than expected, from 10.6% in October to 10.0% in November. Whether this means that the inflation rate has passed its peak is uncertain in view of the extreme fluctuations in energy prices.”

“Underlying price inflation remains high. The core inflation rate excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco remained at 5.0% in November.”

“Today's data increase the likelihood that the ECB will raise its key interest rates by only 50 bps in December.”