ECB Preview: EUR/USD could suffer a drop but may experience a recovery afterward


There are so many things to like about the eurozone's improving prospects – raising expectations that can only end in disappointment when the European Central Bank announces its rate decision on June 10. However, any such dip will likely prove temporary due to several factors, Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, briefs.

A disappointing outcome may weigh on the euro in the short term

“What can the ECB do in response to an improving outlook? Raising its interest rate is off the cards for the next few years, but it could taper down the pace of its bond buys. The ECB is deploying its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), a relatively generous plan with few strings attached. Apart from reducing the rhythm, the bank could also announce that it would refrain from deploying PEPP in full. The current scope is a whopping €1.85 trillion that are expected to be completed.” 

“There are several reasons why the bank could disappoint cheerful investors and refrain from any tightening at this juncture. First, the emergence from the covid crisis is still fragile. If the Delta variant spreads quickly in the old continent, lockdowns or delays in easing could be on the cards, serving as a setback to the economy. Secondly, while headline inflation is at the bank's target, Core CPI remains tame, at 0.9% in May. Lagarde and her colleagues can see through the increase in energy prices and bumps related to the quick reopening and conclude that inflation is temporary. Therefore, a no-change decision is the most likely one, and it could weigh on the euro.”

“The main reason for EUR/USD to recover comes from the Fed and expectations of what it could do due to the increase in US consumer prices. At 12:30 GMT, just as Lagarde begins her press conference, the US publishes fresh CPI figures for May. Expectations are elevated and any headline figure that is under 5% could trigger a sell-off in the dollar. Another factor to consider is EUR/USD's tendency to undo its moves once the press conference ends and the dust settles. Such a reversion to the mean may also occur this time.”

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

GME stock positioned for another short squeeze

Get the full analysis and chart in our Insights. Upgrade to Premium today    

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD loses 1.21 as the dollar extends its gains

EUR/USD has dipped below 1.21, some 70 pips down on the day as the dollar recovers alongside Treasury yields. US Consumer Sentiment beat estimates with 86.4 points. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats amid UK GDP miss, reopening concerns

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.4150, down on the day. UK GDP missed with 2.3% in April and a four-week delay to Britain's reopening is speculated. The greenback is gaining some ground.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD drops back below $1900, as US dollar rebounds ahead of data

Gold price has retraced below the $1900 mark once again, having tested Tuesday’s high near $1903. The latest leg down in gold price comes on the back of a tepid bounce staged by the US dollar, as the Treasury yields trim losses across the curve.

Gold News

Ethereum price prepares for a bullish weekend, targeting $3,000

Ethereum price seems prime to revisit $3,000. Although ETH faces resistance at $2,300, the upswing seems imminent. A downswing below $2,000 could invalidate the bullish thesis. 

Read more

Hot Inflation is warming the seat for the June FOMC

Americans are seeing the fastest price increases since their seventh-graders were born as inflation builds into the US economy from the disruptions of the pandemic lockdowns. Core CPI at 3.8% is the steepest gain in 29 years.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures