ECB Lagarde signals that July is likely liftoff

Bloomberg reported that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the first increase in interest rates in more than a decade may come in July but downplayed the idea of a half-point move amid concerns about economic expansion. She joins a growing number of ECB policymakers calling for a July hike after inflation hit 7.5 per cent in the eurozone last month.

Most other major central banks have already raised borrowing costs but the ECB, which had fought too low inflation for a decade, is still driving cash into the system via bond purchases. 

Meanwhile, the Nederlandsche Bank Governor Knot broke ranks to talk about a 50bp rate hike in July, but otherwise, the story is pretty clear, analysts at Societe Generale say. ''The June ECB meeting will make clear that rates are rising in July. Meanwhile, consumer confidence remains depressed, but activity data are still resilient.''

EUR/USD carves out near-term base

As for the single currency, EUR/USD has reinforced its defense of key support from the 1.0341 low of 2017. With daily MACD holding having turned higher, analysts at Credit Suisse remain of the view a near-term base is forming, with a break above 1.0642 needed to confirm.