|

ECB conclusions after surprise annoucements - Westpac

Tim Riddell, analyst at Westpac explained that the spike today on the ECB’s announcement has effectively placed the high of a likely pre-FOMC range at just above 1.0850. 

Key Quotes:

"Once markets realised that they had misread the tapering and that this decision encompasses a clear easing unravelled initial gains and EUR/USD fell back to trade around 1.0650.

The clarification of the policy extension during the Q&A session underscores the divergence in policy between Eurozone and US. The FOMC’s profile should now dictate the extent of this divergence and so the potential for EUR/USD into year end. 

Conclusion"

"The ECB has surprised with an easing of policy and a reduction in its self-imposed restriction.
Forecasts are not substantially different, but ECB has clearly stated a more dovish bias despite providing greater symmetry from its more flexible policy.
EUR will now be at risk of being a funding currency of choice once markets address further Central Bank Policy meetings into year end.
Bund yields should be driven lower in the shorter end of the curve, pulling regional curves with it for a bear steepening of curves.
The ECB is effectively providing support in depth and for longer with the flexibility to alter the parameters of this support."
 

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1900; divergent Fed-ECB expectations offer support

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1835-1.1830 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1875 area, remaining nearly unchanged for the day and staying within striking distance of an over one-week high, reached on Tuesday, amid mixed cues.

GBP/USD slips heading into the Thursday trading window

The Pound Sterling pulled back from four-year highs on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of Bank of England dovishness and UK political uncertainty, even as the US Dollar weakened on soft labor market revisions. 

Gold posts modest gains above $5,050 as US-Iran tensions persist despite strong labor data

Gold price trades in positive territory near $5,060 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher despite stronger-than-expected US employment data. The release of the US Consumer Price Index inflation report will take center stage later on Friday. 

Bitcoin holds steady despite strong US labour market

Bitcoin briefly bounced from $66,000 to above $68,000 but slightly reversed those gains following Wednesday's US January jobs report. The top crypto is hovering around $67,000, down 2% over the past 24 hours as of writing on Wednesday.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.