DXY: Geopolitical concerns overshadow Fed – OCBC

In the FX space, geopolitical concerns appear to have overshadowed the FOMC outcome. Last at 99 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risk aversion dominates sentiments

"Bloomberg carried headlines on 'US eyes this weekend for Iran attack', 'US plans for any Iran attack continue to evolve'. Risk aversion dominates sentiments, and that puts pressure on risksensitive FX including AUD, NZD in G7 space while also undermining KRW in the AxJ space."

"With oil prices at risk of going higher as geopolitical tensions show little signs of de-escalation, net oil importing AxJs such as PHP, INR, KRW, TWD, and THB may be affected more than other AxJs. Geopolitical developments remain fluid, and caution is warranted as we head into the weekend. US markets are closed today for Juneteenth holidays. Taking stock, DXY price action was whippy but within range."

"DXY did dip on FOMC outcome, where dot plot still sees 2 cuts for the year though dispersion of dots revealed division in views amid heightened uncertainty. Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose. Immediate resistance at 99.50 (50 DMA). A decisive break may risk DXY going higher towards 100.2 and 100.60 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 98, 97.60 levels (recent low)."