Down 45% this year, is Bloomin’ Brands finally finding a floor?

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (BLMN) stands as a heavyweight in the casual dining sector, managing a well-known portfolio that includes Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse. Despite steady revenue growth, the stock has struggled significantly, sliding over 25% since early August. This downward pressure has been fueled by a mix of thinning margins, sluggish foot traffic, and a downward revision of their full-year earnings outlook.

Looking at the charts, a notable technical shift occurred on December 11th, 2025, when BLMN finally broke above a long-term declining trendline that had been in play since November 2024. Following that breakout, price has now retraced to test the top of that very same trendline. While this setup often provides an attractive entry point for a bounce, we have to stay cautious; year-end tax-loss harvesting can often force positions closed and cause breakouts to sputter.

The key levels to watch right now sit at $6.21 and the recent November low of $5.90. Both of these areas have the technical weight to spark a reversal, allowing BLMN to reclaim its footing and push back against the overhead pressure.

On the move up, there are two primary hurdles that sellers have established via large red daily candles. The first major resistance sits at $7.86, with the second following closely at $8.50. If the bulls can clear those levels, the path opens up for a test of the $11.00 mark. Given that the stock is down over 45% on the year, the current alignment of this trendline re-test could set the stage for a strong relief rally heading into January.