Disney trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

Most consistent gainer

Using the VolatilityMarkets software to structure a Disney trend following trade idea

Part 1) Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term Disney has been accelerating lower. In the long term Disney has been decelerating lower. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a time horizon.

Part 2) Trade idea details

2A) Trade idea graph

2b) Intraday predictions

Sell $ 92,524 USD of Disney, take profit at $ 85.4066 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD gain, stop out at $ 87.2732 with 50.01% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon

Part 3) DIS trend analysis

DIS last price was $ 86.34. The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend decelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

Part 4) DIS value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the DIS price increased 5 days and decreased 15 days. For every up day, there were 3.0 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 2.2439% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.7044% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -13.76% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.688% percent.

Part 5) DIS worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for DIS, is $ 83.5918 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 89.0882 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 87.2732 could trade and that $ 85.4066 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key takeaways

• Price today $ 86.34.

• Over the past 20 days, the DIS price increased 5 days and decreased 15 Days.

• For every up day, there were 3.0 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 2.2439%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.7044%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -13.76% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.688% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been decelerating: $ -0.0011 per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by $ -3.10.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -3.5905 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 2.35.