China's Copper ore imports declining, but still high – Commerzbank

The Copper price remained stable at levels above $9,600 per ton at the start of the week. However, downward pressure remains high, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Sgns still point to expansion

"On the one hand, the inventory build on the LME has continued since the beginning of the month, indicating a slowdown in the US import pull. On the other hand, the still robust Copper ore imports of the world's most important metal producer, China, suggest that Copper production there will remain dynamic for the time being. Imports have fallen significantly from their record high in April."

"Overall, however, they are still up around 6% for the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. So far, Chinese smelters seem to be coping well with the low treatment and refining charges. The rise in the Copper price, which has improved margins, has certainly helped. Since the beginning of the year, the price traded on the LME has risen by almost 10%."

"However, as US tariffs are likely to have a price-dampening effect (outside the US), no further support is to be expected from this side. In this respect, it is questionable how profitable it is for Chinese smelters to maintain production at a high level. For the time being, however, the signs still point to expansion."