|

China: Downward price pressures continue – UOB Group

China’s CPI rose at a weaker-than-expected pace in June. Amid further easing by the PBOC, it is expected that the 1Y loan prime rate (LPR) will fall to 3.20% by end-4Q24 (current 3.45%), UOB Group Economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

PBOC's 1Y loan prime rate to fall to 3.20%

“China’s CPI rose at a weaker-than-expected pace in Jun. PPI deflation eased to its smallest pace in 17 months due mainly to base effect.”

“We lower our price expectation for this year. Our revised forecast for CPI is at 0.3% (from 0.7%) and PPI at -1.3% (from -1.0%) for 2024.”

“Amid further easing by the PBOC, we expect the 1Y loan prime rate (LPR) to fall to 3.20% by end-4Q24 (current 3.45%). We also think there is a possibility of another 50 bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in 2H24.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1700 as ECB signals pause

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1710 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro strengthens against the Greenback after the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged and took a more positive view on the Eurozone economy, which has shown resilience to global trade shocks. Financial markets are likely to remain subdued as traders book profits ahead of the long holiday period.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold advances above $4,350 amid renewed geopolitical tensions

Gold is rising back above $4,350 early Monday, helped by renewed geopolitical tensions. Israel-Iran conflict and US-Venezuela headlines drive investors toward the traditional store of value, Gold. 

Week ahead: Key risks to watch in last days of 2025 and early 2026

The festive period officially starts next week, with many traders vacating their desks until the first full week of January, making way for thin trading volumes and very few top-tier releases.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.