CEE: Stronger FX despite fading growth momentum – ING

Yesterday's PMI numbers showed slight signs of improvement in industrial sentiment for August in most countries, but still across the board remains well below the 50p threshold. At the same time, Turkey's second-quarter GDP delivered a negative surprise pointing to weakening momentum, ING’s FX strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes.

Markets are back in full mode after the US holiday

“This morning saw the release of the 2Q GDP breakdown in Hungary and later today we will see second-quarter wages in the Czech Republic, which we see rising 4.2% YoY in real terms, slightly below market expectations, while the Czech National Bank (CNB) expects 4.6%. This could be the first time in a while that a data print will have the attention of the CNB and could bring some volatility to the summer stable market levels.”

“Also today, in Turkey, we expect inflation to drop again from 61.8% to 51.8% YoY, which is also the market's consensus, mainly due to the base effect and weaker food price growth. After the US holiday, the markets are back in full mode and we maintain our bias from yesterday for CEE FX.”

“PLN saw the biggest gains within the region following continued repricing up in the rates space ahead of Wednesday's National Bank of Poland meeting. We think there is more to come here plus EUR/USD showed some reversal limiting the negative impact from the previous days. Hence, we continue to be bullish on PLN but also CZK heading below 25.00 EUR/CZK.”