CAD steady on the day – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the day, with spot holding gains towards the 1.41 area yesterday amid the US equity market sell-off, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

CAD remains well below fair value

"Weak risk sentiment accounts for the CAD’s weak performance, it would appear. US/Canada short-term swap spreads have narrowed sharply (nearly 20bps) since the start of the month, but that has not helped the CAD at all and it finds itself trading well below our estimated fair value (1.3929). Spot is likely to remain a slave to external sentiment in the absence of a stronger, domestic catalyst."

"Spot is consolidating on the day but the pattern of trade on the short-term charts suggests a pause in the uptrend rather than a stabilization or reversal at this stage. USD gains through 1.4080 tilt risks towards a retest of the mid-1.41 zone. Support is 1.4050/60 ahead of 1.3970/80."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD stays below 1.3400 after soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and stays below 1.3400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, making it difficult for the British Pound gather recovery momentum. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.1400 as markets focus on geopolitics

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1400 on Wednesday. In the absence of high-impact data releases, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caps the pair's upside. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions.

Gold extends rally as Middle East concerns intensify

Gold extends gains for the fourth consecutive day, standing comfortably above $4,100, unfazed by the risk-off market amid rising tensions in Iran and higher Oil prices. The pair has rallied nearly 2.5% so far this week and is on track for its best weekly performance in more than three months.

XRP consolidates as inflows and volume climb

Ripple (XRP) retains a slightly bullish outlook on Wednesday despite logging a minor correction from the supply range near $1.15. The remittance token is down 0.5% on the day, reflecting a broader cryptocurrency market drawdown, primarily driven by persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran in the Middle East.

US – Fed preview: A divided hold

The first month after Kevin Warsh's debut at the FOMC's June meeting has brought mixed signals on the inflation front. On one hand, the re-escalation of the war in Iran has lifted energy prices higher again. Yet on the other hand, Warsh's hawkish comments have already lifted real rates, supported broad USD and tightened financial conditions while realized inflation surprised to the downside in June.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.