Carlijn Prins, Economist at Rabobank, explains that Brexit has officially started since British Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon and it has become clear that the EU27 will first want to make significant progress on the orderly withdrawal, before starting talks on the future relationship.
“The negotiations will be complex, difficult and time consuming and we foresee various roadblocks in the Brexit process.”
“The future for free trade between the EU and the UK does not look very bright, as the UK and the EU are miles apart.”
“But, the discussion of the Great Repeal Bill in the UK parliament will give pro-EU MP’s another opportunity to increase their influence on the negotiations in order to soften the hard stance of the British government on Brexit.”
“Both the EU and the UK seem to acknowledge the importance of a transitional deal, although the conditions set by the European Council’s guidelines for a such deal might be difficult to sell to hard line Brexiteers.”
“A new Scottish independence referendum or dispute about Gibraltar could further complicate the Brexit process.”
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