BoE Preview: Further easing measures to boost sterling, three scenarios – TDS

Investors are appreciating easing measures, therefore, the pound is set to strengthen on a dovish Bank of England enlarging the QE program while an expansion of QE in line with expectations or a hawkish stance would hit sterling, per TD Securities. 

Key quotes

“Hawkish (10%): Unchanged rates. BoE votes for an additional £100 billion of QE, but suggests more explicitly that the pace of QE to slow as market dislocations have eased. GBP/USD 1.2455 EUR/GBP 0.9060.”

“Base Case (60%): BoE votes 9-0 for an additional £100 billion of QE, remaining vague on the pace and open to doing more QE later on if needed. Minutes show no discussion of negative rates in monetary policy debate. Balance of risks to the 'illustrative' scenario from May MPR still lies to the downside. Stands ready to take further action as necessary. GBP/USD 1.2505 EUR/GBP 0.9025.”

“Dovish (30%): Unchanged rates, QE of £150 billion. BoE announces £150 billion+ of QE, but likely to be a dissent or two in favour of smaller QE announcement. MPC signals it wants to provide more certainty around QE into the year-end. GBP/USD 1.2690 EUR/GBP 0.8905.”