Analysts at TDS are looking for the Bank of Canada to keep policy rates unchanged at its December decision, in line with consensus (with 22 out of 26 forecasters calling for a hold).
“The statement will be slightly upbeat, dropping the “labour-market-slack” idea, reaffirming its confidence that inflation will firm by next year, and repeating its concerns over NAFTA uncertainty. No explicit guidance about the timing of the next hike is expected, but the statement will be clear about the next move being up.”
“Our view remains for the BoC to hike in January. The output gap is closed and last week’s LFS report killed the “slack-in-the-labour-market” narrative.”
“Additional positive surprises in the labour market and a more hawkish Fed could bring forward our July rate hike to April, but the BoC is expected to hike more slowly and by less than the Fed over the next year.”
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