- Australian Dollar strengthens against its US counterpart due to RBA policy outlook.
- RBA is expected to maintain its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%.
- US S&P Global PMIs data came in mixed during the European session
On Monday the AUD/USD was seen rising by 0.40% to 0.6835 by late in the US session. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish policy outlook and the release of preliminary S&P Global PMI data for September from the US were the primary movers of the pair.
With uncertainty surrounding Australia's economic future and the RBA maintaining a cautious stance in response to persistent inflation, financial markets anticipate a modest 25 bps interest rate cut in 2024.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar rises on RBA policy outlook, US Dollar recovers
- Australian Dollar edges higher ahead of RBA policy meeting, as investors anticipate an unchanged Official Cash Rate of 4.35%.
- RBA's forward guidance on interest rates beyond the current year will be closely scrutinized amid persistent inflationary pressure and a solid labor market.
- On the other hand, the US Dollar regained some ground, buoyed by skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-cutting path.
- CME FedWatch data indicates a total of 75 bps in rate cuts over November and December, with a 50% probability of a 50 bps reduction in November.
- Over 100 economists polled by Reuters forecast 25 bps rate cuts at both of the Fed's remaining meetings.
- On the data front, the composite S&P PMI expanded at a slower pace of 54.4 in September, down from 54.6 in August.
- Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 47.0, while the services PMI expanded at a better-than-projected 55.4.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls surge and have more room to go
With the pair above 0.6800 and indicators showing strength, the AUD/USD might have more room to go higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, which means that it isn’t yet in the overbought zone, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is printing rising green bars. The next target lies around 0.6850.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Bitcoin sits at new record highs above $122,000
Bitcoin breaks above the key milestone level on Monday, setting a new all-time high above $122,000, with no signs of slowing. The technical outlook supports further gains as momentum indicators remain robust and price action firmly in price discovery mode, with the next potential target above $130,000.
EUR/USD keeps the red below 1.1700 amid US-EU trade tensions
EUR/USD remains in the red below 1.1700 in the European session on Monday. The Euro underperforms against the US Dollar, in the wake of rising risks of a US-EU trade war, especially after US President Trump threatened 30% tariffs on the EU from August 1. EU says its ready with retaliatory tariffs.
Gold price flirts with multi-week top as safe-haven buying offsets modest USD strength
Gold price trades with a positive bias for the fourth straight day and hovers near a three-week high during the European session on Monday. Traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for US inflation figures. Meanwhile, trade war fears continue underpinning the bright metal.
GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3500; vulnerable near multi-week low
GBP/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase in European trading on Monday, holding losses below the 1.3500 mark. Looming trade concerns dent risk sentiment and boost the haven dmeand for the US Dollar at the expense of the higher-yieding Pound Sterling.
Meme coins to watch as Bitcoin hits record high
Meme coins Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki are positioned to extend gains as the weekly recovery reaches crucial resistance levels. The meme coins gain bullish momentum on the back of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery run, hitting a new all-time high on Thursday.
Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.