Australian Dollar rises as US Dollar loses ground despite Fed caution
- Australian Dollar gains ground amid cautious sentiment surrounding the RBA policy stance.
- The People’s Bank of China left one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged. The one- and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
Traders will likely focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes due on Tuesday, for clues on the central bank’s policy outlook and its assessment of inflationary pressures. As of December 18, the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures February 2026 contract was trading at 96.34, implying a 27% probability of a rate increase to 3.85% at the next RBA Board meeting.
US Dollar breaks three-day winning streak despite cautious Fedspeak
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 98.60 at the time of writing. Traders await the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter due on Tuesday.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good place to pause and assess the effects of 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, per Bloomberg.
- The Summary of Economic Projections, or so-called "dot plot," indicated a median expectation of only one additional rate cut in 2026. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Thursday that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.7% in November. This reading came in below the market consensus of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the US core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, missing the expectation of 3.0%. This figure marks the slowest pace since 2021.
- US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the next chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be someone who believes in lower interest rates "by a lot." Trump further noted that he will soon announce a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is under consideration to become chair of the central bank, reiterated his dovish stance on interest rates during a CNBC forum. “Because inflation is still elevated, we can take our time - there’s no rush to get down. We can steadily bring the policy rate down toward neutral,” Waller said.
- Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations, which rose to 4.7% in December from November’s three-month low of 4.5%, support the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance.
Australian Dollar hovers around nine-day EMA above 0.6600
The AUD/USD pair is trading below 0.6620 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair is hovering around the lower ascending channel boundary, indicating the broader trend remains bullish with support holding, while further price action may provide clearer direction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.05, reflecting neutral-to-bullish conditions and building momentum. It remains above the midline, keeping bulls in control.
The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is trending higher and sits just above the spot, capping upside attempts. However, it has flattened over the past session, signaling sideways short-term momentum. The AUD/USD pair maintains a modest uptrend as the nine-day EMA slope remains positive while price consolidates just below the average.
The AUD/USD pair is hovering near the nine-day EMA at 0.6620. A sustained break above this level would bolster short-term momentum, opening the way toward the three-month high at 0.6685 and then 0.6707, the highest since October 2024. On the downside, a decisive break below the ascending channel could increase downside pressure, exposing the six-month low near 0.6414, marked on August 21.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.24% | -0.01% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.10% | -0.17% | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.10% | -0.08% | 0.16% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | 0.11% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.06% | -0.05% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -0.08% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
