Aussie GDP Q4 (QoQ): 3.1% QoQ, much better than expected, AUD bid


Australia's fourth-quarter national accounts have been released where Gross Domestic Product was expected to have risen by 2.5% QoQ taking year-ended growth to -1.8%YoY.

However, the data is better than expected for the quarter. 

Aussie GDP 

  • Australia Q4 real GDP +3.1 pct qtr/qtr, s/adj (Reuters poll +2.5 pct).
    Australia Q4 real GDP-1.1 pct yr/yr, s/adj (Reuters poll -1.8 pct).
    Australia Q4 final consumption expenditure +3.2 pct, s/adj.
    Australia Q4 gross fixed capital expenditure +3.6 pct, s/adj.
    Australia Q4 chain price index +1.7 pct.

AUD/USD reaction

AUD/USD is a touch higher on the data and has been well on its way towards the following target at the M-formation's neckline at 0.7880:

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls target 0.7880 in price recovery

The data is helping this setup move towards the target in a higher high for Asia, and now just a touch of the bullish hourly trend's high as it picks up the pace from new support:

Prior analysis

Live market

AUD/USD had been helped along on Wednesday with a better bid tone in markets owing to stabilisation in US bond markets and weakness in the US dollar, buoying the commodities sector. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia doubled down on its commitment to keep monetary policy settings loose yesterday and the markets expect the RBA to expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in the summertime, potentially as soon as June.

This comes due to the insertion of the phrase that the RBA “is prepared to make further adjustments to its [bond] purchases in response to market conditions”.

On the currency, the central bank explained that AUUD “remains in the upper end of the range of recent years” and that current monetary policy settings are “contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise”. 

Prior to the data, analysts at ANZ bank explained ''consistent with the run of better-than-expected partial data, the forecast bounce in Q4 GDP is larger than we had anticipated a few months ago, suggesting that spending has held up well despite the large reduction in fiscal stimulus in the quarter.''

About Aussie Gross Domestic Product 

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia.

The GDP is considered as a broad measure of economic activity and health.

A rising trend has a positive effect on the AUD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD.

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