Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7824, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7827 and low at 0.7817.
AUD/USD has held onto the 0.78 handle after a choppy NY session within a narrow range between 0.7806 and 0.7835. Weekly claims and US PII data were both positive and boosted the USD broadly despite a slip in US yields. However, metal prices were supportive to the Aussie and gold came into offers just ahead of the $1,300 price target, supportive of the Aussie.
The markets may well want to wait until the US CPI and retail sales on Friday, but first, the RBA Financial Stability Review is released. "The key interest will be their assessment of macroprudential measures, while their view on commercial property will also likely gain attention," explained analysts at Westpac. There is also Chinese September trade balance.
AUD/USD 1 day:
The analysts suggested that the next target in this multi-day rally is 0.7875, and suggested that AUD probably needs the USD rally to remain stalled.
AUD/USD 1-3 month:
Further out, the analysts at Westpac explained that if the RBA remains firmly on hold, as they expect, and the US dollar rises on the delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year-end.
Daily technicals lean bullish, with the 10-D SMAcracked and RSI biased up. In the meantime, the short-term picture presents a modest bullish stance, as the price kept held near the mentioned daily high at the end of the day, having advanced above a bullish 20 SMA, and with technical indicators aiming higher within positive territory, after a modest downward correction. Beyond the mentioned daily high the pair has scope to extend towards the 0.7900 region where selling interest will likely reject any potential advance.
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