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AUD/USD weaker around 0.7450 ahead of US data

The AUD/USD pair maintained its bearish bias throughout the European trading session, has managed to bounce off around 20-pips from session low and is currently trading around mid-0.7400s.

Following yesterday's volatile session in wake of Italy's 'NO' vote to constitutional reforms referendum on Sunday, the greenback has been confined in a range as investors now look forward to next week's FOMC meeting in order to gain fresh insight over the Fed's near-term monetary policy for 2017, which would help determine the next leg of directional move for the US Dollar. 

The pair, however, has managed to recover from session lows as markets now seem to have digested RBA's dovish signal of a possible near-term economic slowdown, before actually picking-up again. Hence, market focus now turns to the next key Australian macroeconomic indicator, GDP print third quarter of 2016 scheduled for release during early Asian session on Wednesday. 

The pair's recovery, however, lacked momentum as the prevalent weak sentiment surrounding commodity markets is seen weighing on commodity-linked currencies - like the Aussie. 

Next on tap would be US economic docket - revised non-farm productivity, trade balance data and factory orders, which would be looked upon for short-term trading opportunities during NA session.

Technical outlook

Renewed weakness, below session low support near 0.7430 region, now seems to accelerate the downfall towards 0.7410 intermediate support before the pair break below 0.7400 handle to test 0.7380 support area. On the upside, 0.7470 is likely to act as immediate hurdle above which the pair is likely to extend its momentum towards 0.7500 psychological mark ahead of its next major resistance at the very important 200-day SMA near 0.7525-30 region.
 

1 Week
Avg Forecast 0.7381
0.0%100.0%9.0%0-10010203040506070809010011000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 9% Bullish
  • 91% Bearish
  • 0% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 0.7370
100.0%80.0%20.0%0203040506070809010000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 20% Bullish
  • 60% Bearish
  • 20% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 0.7353
100.0%56.0%17.0%010203040506070809010000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 17% Bullish
  • 39% Bearish
  • 44% Sideways
Bias Sideways

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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